Is it the duty of every Intelligence professional to warn?

Characteristics and possible applications of warning intelligence

Abstract

The otherness in Warning Intelligence (WI) or in Indications Intelligence (II) is originally the enemy, the enemy country, the enemy Army. As the purpose of this study is to support the thesis that WI should not be confined to the military universe, the concept of enemy will be replaced with adversary, hostile actor, threat, antagonistic or adversarial factor. In a given situation, the WI must identify and monitor antagonistic actors, their intentions, motivations and means in order to determine indications that will be part of a warning, anticipating a threat or an opportunity. The II is different from Current Intelligence, from Basic Intelligence or from Estimative Intelligence; the II has a specific methodology known as “Indications and Warning” (I&W) as main doctrinal aspect. If the WI is understood in all its distinctive characteristics and properly applied, it has the potential to expand and enhance the quality of Intelligence in Brazil.