CONFLICT ASSESSMENT APPLIED TO INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS
AN EXPLORATORY STUDY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.58960/rbi.2021.16.194Keywords:
conflict analysis; intelligence analysis; structured analytic techniquesAbstract
Intelligence services have been producing knowledge about confl icts since they were created and institutionalized. The nature of these disputes, however, has changed over time, especially after the 20th century world wars and, more recently, with the end of the Cold War. Conflict analysis developed in this context, bringing together studies on war and peace, diplomacy, negotiation, conflict prevention and management. This article aims at exploring possibilities of taking advantage of models, techniques and tools used in conflict analysis, and the process of production of Intelligence knowledge support, contributing to the still incipient discussion about convergences and divergences between the two practices. For this, studies and practical manuals on Intelligence, conflict analysis and knowledge production were analyzed and collated. In addition to presenting tools and possible practical uses of structured analytic techniques, the article also encourages intelligence professionals to think on their objects of analysis as spaces for dispute and competition between different parties.
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D8793.htm. Acesso em: 29 set. 2019
BRASIL. Lei nº 9.883, de 7 de dezembro de 1999. Institui o Sistema Brasileiro de
Inteligência, cria a Agência Brasileira de Inteligência - ABIN, e dá outras providências.
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set. 2019.
BRASIL . Gabinete de Segurança Institucional. Agência Brasileira de Inteligência. Doutrina
Nacional de Inteligência: fundamentos doutrinários fundamentos doutrinários. Brasília:
ABIN, 2016.
CEPIK, Marco. Espionagem e democracia: agilidade e transparência como dilema na
institucionalização de serviços de inteligência. Rio de Janeiro: Ed. FGV, 2003
CLARK, Robert M. Intelligence analysis: a target-centric approach. 6ª ed. CQ Press, 2020.
FEWER, INTERNATIONAL ALERT e SAFERWORLD. Conflict-sensitive approaches
to development, humanitarian assistance and peacebuilding: a resource pack.
Londres: APFO, CECORE, CHA, FEWER, International Alert, e Saferworld, 2004.
Disponível em: https://www.international-alert.org/sites/default/files/Training_
DevelopmentHumanitarianAssistancePeacebuilding_EN_2020_0.pdf.. Acesso em: 29
set. 2019.
GONÇALVES, Joanisval B. Atividade de Inteligência e legislação correlata. 6ª ed. Niterói:
Impetus, 2018.
GTZ. Confl ict Analysis for Project Planning and Management. Bonn: GTZ, 2001. Disponível
em: http://s1f6467ebcdf39f37.jimcontent.com/download/version/1250450487/
module/2685820709/name/confl ict%2520analysis_gtz.pdf. Acesso em: 29 set. 2019.
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HARRIS, Peter. REILLY, Ben. Democracy and deep-rooted confl ict: options for negotiators.
International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, 1998.
HEUER, Richards J. Psychology of intelligence analysis. Central Intelligence Agency, 1999.
HEUER, Richards J. PHERSON, Randolph H. Structured analytic techniques for intelligence
analysis. 2ª ed. CQ Press, 2015.
INTERNATIONAL ALERT. Programming framework for International Alert: design, monitoring
and evaluation. Londres: International Alert, 2010. Disponível em: https://www.
international-alert.org/sites/default/fi les/library/Programming_Framework_2010.pdf.
Acesso em: 29 set. 2019.
JOHNSTON, Rob. Analytic culture in the U.S. intelligence community: an ethnographic study.
Washington, DC: Central Intelligence Agency, 2005.
LEVINGER, Matthew. Confl ict analysis: understanding causes, unlocking solutions. United
States Institute of Peace, 2013.
LOWENTHAL, Mark M. Intelligence: from secrets to policy. 8ª ed. Washington, DC: CQ
Press, 2020.
LUND, Michael S. Preventing violent confl icts: a strategy for preventive diplomacy. United
States Institute of Peace, 1996.
OECD. Principles for good international engagement in fragile states and situations. Paris:
OECD, 2007. Disponível em: https://www.oecd.org/dac/confl ict-fragility-resilience/
docs/38368714.pdf. Acesso em: 21 set. 2019.
OECD. The DAC guidelines: helping prevent violent conflict. Paris: OECD, 2001.
Disponível em: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/development/helping-prevent-violentconfl
ict_9789264194786-em. Acesso em: 21 set. 2019.
PLATT, Washington. A produção de informações estratégicas. 2ª ed. Rio de Janeiro: Livraria
Agir Editora, 1974.
SHULSKY, Abram N. SCHMITT, Gary J. Silent warfare: understanding the world of
intelligence. 3ª ed. Washington, DC: Potomac Books, Inc., 2002.
TREVERTON, Gregory F. GABBARD, Bryan C. Assessing the tradecraft of intelligence
analysis. Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2008. Disponível em: www.rand.org/pubs/technical_
reports/2008/RAND_TR293.pdf Acesso em: 30 out. 2019.
USAID. Confl ict assessment framework - version 2.0. United States Agency for International
Development, 2012. Disponível em: https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnady739.pdf.
Acesso em: 29 set. 2019.
U.S. GOVERNMENT. Principles of the interagency conflict assessment framework
Washington, DC: United States Department of State, 2008. Disponível em: http://pdf.
usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PCAAB943.pdf. Acesso em: 29 set. 2019.
U.S. GOVERNMENT. The Joint Force in a contested and disordered world. U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff , 2016. Disponível em: https://fas.org/man/eprint/joe2035.pdf. Acesso em: 29 out. 2019.
WOOCHER, Lawrence. Confl ict assessment and intelligence analysis. United States Institute
of Peace, 2011. Disponível em: https://www.usip.org/publications/2011/06/confl ictassessment-
and-intelligence-analysis. Acesso em: 21 set. 2019.
XAVIER, Nathaly S. Inteligência e operações de paz da ONU no pós-guerra fria. In: CEPIK,
Marco. Inteligência governamental: contextos nacionais e desafi os contemporâneos.
Niterói: Impetus, 2011.
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Published
2022-06-07
How to Cite
Nogueira Silveira, Thiago. 2022. “CONFLICT ASSESSMENT APPLIED TO INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS: AN EXPLORATORY STUDY”. Brazilian Journal of Intelligence, no. 16 (June). Brasília, Brasil:9-26. https://doi.org/10.58960/rbi.2021.16.194.
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