ANALYTICAL SKILLS IMPROVEMENTS AND THE ENHACEMENT OF THE INTELLIGENCE ACTIVITY

Abstract

Intelligence differs from other forms of knowledge production because it aims at high-level advice, with the potential of obtaining hidden data, producing confidential outputs and relying on its own method. It is expected that it will provide skillful knowledge to reliably anticipate strategic situations and also deliver broad and judicious inputs for informed decision. However, when signaling probabilities, analysts often allow contamination by personal verdicts and cognitive biases, or slip into amateur mental elaborations. This article argues that the use of analytic techniques, which can be taught and incorporated by the entire staff, results in more careful and professional work, as these resources turn assumptions and arguments clearer, challenge the current thinking, and stimulate new perspectives and scenarios.