A PANORAMA OF THE CYBERNETIC THREAT TO CIVIL AVIATION

Abstract

The article presents an initial approach to the threat of cyberattacks on civil aviation, from the conceptual perspective of civil aviation intelligence. The following research problem was formulated: what are the essential parameters for structuring a panorama of the cyber threat as a phenomenon that interacts with and challenges civil aviation intelligence? The methodology proposes basic, exploratory, and qualitative research, using a literature review which outlines conceptual theoretical frameworks, structures, analyses and case studies. The Brazilian National Intelligence Policy (PNI) highlights the cyber threat, which has been growing exponentially and has a wide range of eligible and interconnected targets. It is a dynamic asymmetric threat that presents multiple formats and possible actors with the potential to damage critical assets and infrastructure. Civil aviation is a recurring target of unlawful interference, where the cyber threat is real – and could result in a “black swan” episode like the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. Addressing the threat of cyberattacks on civil aviation includes applicable concepts, the state of the art of civil aviation intelligence, the irrefutability of possible failures, potential targets, the categories of actors and their motivations, the ability to act and possible attack methods. The final considerations indicate the possibility of developments mediated by a policy to mitigate risks related to cyber threats in civil aviation subsidized by structured intelligence analysis.